This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
VOLUME 24 H
$143.5K
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Commentaires (50)
adasol Aug 30
US bombed two IRGC rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island, US official says US forces have bombed two rocket launchers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) on the country’s Larak Island, according to an unnamed US official speaking to our colleagues at Al Jazeera Arabic. The official claimed Sunday’s attack came as the launchers were preparing to fire missiles carrying naval mines towards the Strait of Hormuz.
adasol Aug 27
BREAKING: Iran directly warns it will massively escalate the confrontation with the United States within the next 48 hours, declaring that its response to Washington's economic war will carry "consequences" and that Tehran is "not empty-handed." "The necessary warnings have been issued, and our cooperation with the United States will have consequences," Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, confirming that any country cooperating with the U.S. campaign will face retaliation
Isekai Aug 17
Karg Maxxing
hyper-liquid-xyz Aug 11
US officials, EIA admit that oil disruptions from Iran war may be prolonged until late 2027, admitting that it could mirror Ukraine like stalemate.
adasol Aug 4
wondering how long does it take before Trump threatens to take Kharg island again
alpaje Aug 2
trump is the biggest p*ssy of all time, we will destroy civilization toady!!!!!! and then 9 hours later peace deal signed, absolute actor
hava-nagila Jul 30
im telling u should buy yes goy
hava-nagila Jul 30
buy yes, easy money.
adasol Jul 30
Three explosions heard on Kharg Island Three explosions have been heard on Kharg Island, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reports.
adasol Jul 29
US military conducting air strikes in Iran - Axios The US military is conducting air strikes in Iran, a US official told Axios on Wednesday.
Vladpoutino Jul 29
Inshallah
88blitzcrank Jul 28
Problem with TACO is Iran does not agree. AlJazeera says they just attacked US forces despite prospects of maybe deal. Please Trump I beg you to finish the job.
adasol Jul 28
JUST IN: Trump threatens WIPEOUT of Iranian bridges, power plants AGAIN on FOX NEWS
hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 28
WTI OIL FUTURES DOWN 5% TO 78, US WAVING WHITE FLAG BY POSSIBLY ACCEPTING IRAN TOLLS, BEARISH
alpaje Jul 28
If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. This market will never be yes isn't it?
Mio.Aoi Jul 28
longer
0x4C6A68AD49C44da012c760893267EEcB135997BE-1775679106556 Jul 27
Trump threatens to occupy the island
hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 26
WTF LOOK AT TRUTH SOCIAL TRUMP IS POSTING RANDOM DESTROYING IRAN AND KHARG POSSIBILITIES
Milin-dc Jul 26
still cheap
88blitzcrank Jul 25
God bless, Mr. Trump publicly said a day or two ago in Axios he was considering massive attack. He already bombed power plants and bridges so maybe Kharg? 3% odds is underrated imo and worth a gamble.
hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 24
Oil dropped $3 in Friday after Iran is possibly TACOing - Pakistan, with support from China, was seeking to revive negotiations between the US and Iran, US thanked China for not intervening in Iran
oopslostmoney Jul 23
Blessed are the oil takers, come on
Predict90 Jul 23
Great predictions
Khargisland Jul 22
Would you please add the ability to plot trading volume under the line chart?
adasol Jul 20
come back when you trade more and make profit, kid
JuicyPusy Jul 20
Why do you keep buying high and selling low repeatedly? Do you have anay idea how these markets work?
adasol Jul 20
US to send additional F-16s, F-35s and refueling tankers to Mideast - CNN
adasol Jul 20
Both side are still attacking each other this morning :)
oopslostmoney Jul 18
Oh, the excitement
hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 18
Reuters - Two US service members in Jordan killed in Iranian attack, US says - Finish the job! Iran = ISIS
0xc1dB6A1F893830B7f856B1023A8655959056838D-1761246178275 Jul 18
Preliminary reports that civilians have been asked to evacuate Kharg island...
oopslostmoney Jul 17
That is fantastic to hear
adasol Jul 17
Iran says US missiles again hit tanker docked at Kharg Island An empty oil tanker docked at Iran’s Kharg Island was again struck by US missiles, Bushehr deputy governor said on Friday, identifying the vessel as Belma.
tetrose Jul 17
Inshala trump will sink kharg deeper than atlantis
hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 17
Trump speech was a nothing burger. Voter fraud! zzz he barely discussed Iran
adasol Jul 16
Israel preparing for possible US-Iran escalation next week - Channel 12
hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 16
Good luck making Kharg hostage. Iran will surrender and accept every demand if US succeeds. US will fail.
meagainsttheworld Jul 16
Trump never lost a war since he started copy trading, and oil is flowing like never before
tetrose Jul 15
Trump is planning to sink Kharg Island with a tactical nuke
oopslostmoney Jul 15
Cha-ching
tetrose Jul 15
Kharg is going to go down like titanic.
hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 15
Iran will not allow this to happen. This is the same as if a tactical nuke was placed in Kharg.
SukMadic Jul 14
Pls open future dates
0xblink Jul 14
why no December resolution?
0x929a8Eb9bE3Dc9Fa54970F10b8195766F1095ab4-1774939223503 Jul 14
Why you even ask without reading the rules: "An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established"
hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 13
Now what happens if there is a TRUTH SOCIAL POST that declares Kharg under control in US but Iran denies it?
oopslostmoney Jul 13
Wow, so subtly insightful
oopslostmoney Jul 13
"Keep the oil, anyone?" is a provocative slogan used by U.S. President Donald Trump in spring 2026 amid rising tensions and a de facto blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
adasol Jul 13
Explosions heard near Bandar Abbas and Qeshm – Iran's state media Explosions were heard near the southern Iranian city of Bandar Abbas and Qeshm island around midday on Monday, state media reported. The blasts appeared to come from an area some distance from Bandar Abbas, possibly along the city’s western coast, according to the report.
adasol Jul 13
Explosions heard in Iran’s Bandar Abbas The IRNA news agency reports that at least two powerful explosions have been heard in Bandar Abbas, in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province, in the past hour. The report came moments before US Central Command announced that its latest wave of attacks on Iran was over.
