This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
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评论（16）
0xdaAD8f92D66A69C81B89AA6037230C6040F723D8-1774474171426 Aug 9
Then you can make a bundle...I wonder if we can do options of some sort....to win big and have a fixed loss
0xdaAD8f92D66A69C81B89AA6037230C6040F723D8-1774474171426 Aug 9
Isn't it amazing that all those media figures, influences, srans, analysts and others won't put their money up? I expected a lot of Elon bets here....
LAVALAVALAVA Jul 26
On the recent earnings call, Elon and team said the production ramp will be painfully slow and not released to the public by EOY 2026.
PatientGambler Apr 17
The real problem isn't that Elon does this type of shit. But that the markets accept these frauds as truths.
IronE Mar 14
From the rules: To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., [link removed]) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit.
Lk7600 Mar 7
What does “release” even mean in this context?
Skrzacik Feb 25
haha you know him too well
0x7566419163dC083D2c120A9fabd89Ca826cf10d8-1760715748253 Feb 7
I would buy no, but I have a hunch that Elon will dress up homeless people and sell them as robots and the market will resolve to yes :face_palm:
IronE Feb 3
Given the Q1 2026 Gen 3 launch, Tesla is highly likely to follow its established pattern of opening a paid deposit queue before June 30 to capture consumer interest and solidify its valuation as a robotics leader.
Trading4Fridge Jan 26
bullish
0xF545AB86715a93eBa8600104DaE7d47c13F7b16D-1767567068178 Jan 22
Elon basically said today at the World Economic Forum, that they will sell it to the public in 2027 (by the end of 2027). Knowing his aggressive timelines I see zero chance that Optimus will come out from the factories in 2026.
Warrenr Jan 3
Now that they’ve moved to the V3 design, June 2026 actually looks doable for the first batch of external shipments. Tesla is already pivoting to be an AI and robotics company first, and with the hardware costs dropping, they’re going to want to beat the Chinese competitors to the punch
ProofOfWork Oct 15
Clearly a no; not even Elon aims for this speed. There might be spikes with earnings calls and Optmius demos and updates
onekeyone Oct 7
This should be a 1% chance for yes.
rrru Sep 28
no
SebRedBull Sep 27
Near zero chance. Elons optimistic goal is Optimus being deployed for internal factory use mid next year.
