Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
24H VOLUME
$31.7K
LIQUIDITY
$31.7K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (48)
GollumGekko 23h ago
Bro is innocent , we all saw candaces videos , it was bibi and the deceptions
Gracy2019 Sep 5
Why can’t I buy in the US?? Or is it just my account?
paddaa Sep 4
I bought NO because he didn't even do it apparently? experts on the subject all agree it was done by the guys wife + Israel + annunaki/Nephilim?
0x6eEC4DBC0850D822be022D9e466C48BB2acAd736-1782263966497 Sep 2
If he pleads guilty to murder (no death penalty) the judge accepts and he's convicted and it resolves to "yes". But has to be by the closing date.
0x6eEC4DBC0850D822be022D9e466C48BB2acAd736-1782263966497 Sep 2
If he pleads guilty to regular murder (not aggravated) it would be "yes" IF the judge renders judgment by the closing date.
0x6eEC4DBC0850D822be022D9e466C48BB2acAd736-1782263966497 Sep 2
That's only if he fet a deal with no admission of guilt. Impossible. If he pleads guilty to murder (sans death penalty) that's a criminal homicide conviction.
0x6eEC4DBC0850D822be022D9e466C48BB2acAd736-1782263966497 Sep 2
More likely not even started by August 27. This is just a bet on of there will be a plea deal before then.
0x5C1B720C3C689Ca04A28682d3699ccf7494a6866-1780179258213 Aug 28
The exact opposite. It is a huge motivation to plea.
Natstar777 Aug 19
Dummy
Natstar777 Aug 12
The trial will move forward. The U.S. will not allow this guy to go free. The price will start rising on Sept 1 after the judge's ruling and all the press starts surrounding this case.
Natstar777 Aug 12
Too easy.
LongShot-Louie Aug 7
the death penalty makes it less likely to have a plea deal.
0x3c08C2272F0c35aF0cAc2FF53f2a7a5B9efFE18A-1779281507482 Jul 29
The September 1 date is to determine if the trail moves forward.
0x5e93348F5F69Ed3C7CA7413128360f189F38f9bf-1776735969295 Jul 23
The judge set it over to September 1
ansatz Jul 22
Reach out on X @ AnsatzPM
lemmylehmitz Jul 22
I'm a journalist writing a piece on this specific trade. If you are a holder w more than 1000 shares and would like to discuss why u think he'll be convicted or not, pls send a message to my wallet on blockscan chat.
0x5e93348F5F69Ed3C7CA7413128360f189F38f9bf-1776735969295 Jul 17
It's been set for September 1 for a plea
alexindacomp Jul 16
FairPoly says that: Given a high‑profile aggravated murder charge with death penalty sought, and a resolution window extending to July 31, 2027, it is reasonable to assign a modestly better‑than‑coinflip chance that some criminal homicide conviction is obtained in this case before the deadline. However, capital‑type cases are prone to long delays, and the rules create several paths to a No resolution—plea without admission, dismissal, amended non‑homicide charge, or simply no verdict by the cutoff. The current Yes price (~0.455) is within a couple of percentage points of a plausible fair estimate (~0.47) and the market is highly liquid with tight spreads, so there is no material mispricing to exploit; main risk to a Yes position is extended procedural delay or a plea structured to avoid an admission of guilt.
baboso Jul 15
La pression sur la défense pour éviter la peine de mort est trop grande pour qu'ils risquent un procès long et incertain. Un plaidoyer de culpabilité formel (qui résout le marché en "YES") est l'issue la plus logique et la plus rapide pour les deux parties avant l'échéance de l'été 2027.
baboso Jul 14
Not easy
baboso Jul 14
Hello
AmericaOnly Jul 12
Agree.
0x931C82b5361f334C5Aec4a13344F9390b4e63382-1775680113755 Jul 11
I did actually i saw and heard the BF video testimony and the confession to him and the communication they had while he was waiting to try and retrieve the rifle which is the accusers grandfathers rifle. not promising.
ansatz Jul 11
The sharps are betting No because of the resolution date. July 31 2027 is... optimistic
LongShot-Louie Jul 11
whats more likely is that the trial will still be going on by august 2027
AmericaOnly Jul 11
To anyone wondering why it's under 50%, you need to actually watch the prelim hearing with a neutral state of mind. It ain't football where you cheer for a team. So far, the prosecution has surprisingly poor evidence - and all of the evidence could just as easily have put Mr Twiggs at the scene. I will wait, but in the coming months I may actually bid some "No" if it dips again.
Imo7o Jul 11
Daddy Netanyahu will convict tyler himself, easy money
notsharp Jul 10
How so low, what am I missing?
DontTrustMe Jul 10
But no chance he gets offered a deal without an admission of guilt. Hence, it's essentially a deadline market imo.
FrankCarr Jul 9
Can we get a separate market on the probability of acquittal?
FrankCarr Jul 6
The market resolves to no if he takes a plea deal. That is why it is only at 46%. Weird wording, I admit, as this would still make him a convict.
FrankCarr Jul 6
If he takes a plea, it resolves to no. Still, I think it is a good bet to take.
FrankCarr Jul 6
Well, also if he takes a plea---according to the rules stated---it resolves to know. Even though that would still make him a convict.
FrankCarr Jul 6
The other issue is that if he takes a plea deal, the market resolves to no if you read the rules (even though you are technically still a convict). Says it in the rules. Bad wording on their part.
FrankCarr Jul 6
Yes he did.
MeNoDatNutReelMuni Jul 3
Israel will make sure he's convicted
vbn9844 Jul 2
nono
vbn9844 Jul 2
no
bnm546 Jul 2
Robinson faces capital homicide charges but has not received a guilty verdict to date.
iwillfknmakeitt Jul 1
he didn't fucking do it lol
ansatz Jul 1
The issue is that the market resolution date is July 31, 2027. For a homicide case with possibility of death penalty, it will likely take a long time to prosecute. Polymarket should add a "by July 31, 2027" in the title.
Ogamonday001 Jul 1
Surely he will be convicted for homicide, and other penalty will follow.@27SIC @27Community #team2strongertogether
DontTrustMe Jun 29
Which seems unrealistic imo. This market seems just a deadline play to me.
0xAe8739813B024631B3769E8788464795EE70d629-1776456987493 Jun 29
You gotta read the full sentence bruh: "If this case ends due to a plea agreement WITHOUT AN ADMISSION OF GUILT"
iForgor Jun 28
"Tell er I want all neck just like Tyler Robinson" -Lil Yachty 2026
Maxwell-prod Jun 27
If they agree to a plea deal it will resolve to NO. Also the first hearing is scheduled July 6 and the verdict has to come before 27 July 2027 or else it will also resolve to NO. A potential death penalty case is really complex and usually are long dragged out and could easily take longer than 12-13 months before a final verdict is in place.
Schnitzelwiener Jun 24
Unless he has an 'accident' before the verdict.
DontTrustMe Jun 17
Hum... yeah... obviously, he is going to be convicted of homicide. 🤨
