Sample size: 29,396 markets
How accurate are our markets?
A statistical look at how well market odds match real-world outcomes.
96.7%
4 hr accuracy
90.4%
1 month accuracy
0.0627
Brier score
Accuracy prior to resolution
How close market prices were to the eventual outcome in the days before resolution.
Expected vs Actual
Comparing implied probabilities with realized outcomes across buckets.
Brier Score vs Volume
Lower is better. Brier scores measure how close predictions were to being right.
Resolution Composition
Methods
Accuracy is measured by comparing the market's implied probability at discrete checkpoints before resolution with the binary outcome. Brier score aggregates squared probability errors; lower is better. Volume-weighted samples reduce noise from thin markets.
Multi-outcome markets are converted into mutually exclusive binary resolutions for scoring. Checkpoints include 30d, 14d, 7d, 3d, 1d, and 4h prior to the official resolution timestamp.
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about how we measure market accuracy and interpret the charts above.